Last week the world was greeted with the news of a new arms build-up between China and India. At the same time Russia overtook the UK to become the world's third largest defence spender. Germany dropped out of the list of big military spenders altogether.
It still does not have to be this way, but as Europe transforms into a giant retirement home and America begins to face up to bankruptcy if action is not taken to curb its profligate spending, the hubris of the West will almost guarantee these as the twilight years. Canada, Australia and New Zealand increasingly look like the healthiest parts of the developed world.
In a recent blog for Reuters, Fred Kempe warned that if America was no longer the dominant world power, there would surely be a €dangerous global power vacuum that no one over the next two decades is willing or capable of filling.€
Whatever one thinks of the United States, this is a misreading of history. It is also displays a disturbing hyper-nationalism. The world operated without the US and could do so again. Whether that world would be better or worse is a matter of conjecture. In a recent article, we warned of the dangers of a post-Western order. But it is insulting to the other 180 odd countries in the world that they need wet-nursing by the United States.
While Kempe is correct to think that if the West were to fade away, the order that the US holds together would also, he is wrong to think this is not already happening and could not benefit certain parts of the world.
If South America continues with the UNASUR project, it could potentially deliver greater prosperity and opportunity, not to mention a greater pan-Ibero American identity, than if the countries of the South remain distinct and isolated.
The end of British and French dominance in the mid-twentieth century has not led to greater prosperity for people in most of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Corruption has entrenched and wars continue apace.
The West has largely lost its moral authority. Not only because the cultural output of the West is deemed more and more to consist of vulgar music and pornography (this is the perception, whether it matches reality or not is another matter), but because the West is so selective about which tyrants it goes after.
While one can see the potential fallout of intervention in Syria, what special characteristics meant that Libya was ripe for regime change, but that problems in Mali, Somalia and the Sudans do not need dealing with? In much of Africa, the West has lost its toe-hold to China, who has carved a position of influence and authority in countries like Zambia.
What concerns both me and other analysts is the sheer denial of many Westerners to accept the problems they now face. Europe needs to dramatically reverse its population freefall. Even mighty Germany will lose millions (that's right, millions) of people in the coming decades unless a) the fertility right goes up or b) mass immigration begins.
For many European countries, such as Italy and Spain, the problem is now compounded by the numbers of people emigrating. Yes Russia and China have low levels of fertility. But Russia is building a Eurasian Union and drawing in the Kazakhs and other Eurasians. Meanwhile China is attracting back many in its diaspora. This may not be enough. But speaking to people in Europe, Eurasia and Asia, it appears that Russia and China understand their problems and have the means to make adjustments, far more than Europe does.
Crucially it is just the absolute loss of dynamism in the West which is frightening. Nowhere else in the world €" not China, South America, Russia or the Middle East €" has the native culture been as hollowed out as it has in the West. The Asians have a work ethic which the West is fast losing and the Chinese have no time for a democracy and form of capitalism which they think is inferior to their own.
Again, perhaps they are wrong. But perceptions count and the West has lost much of its authority to boss the Rest around. Give it 10 to 20 years time, if nothing changes, Europe could be demographically-speaking on its knees, Germany spending all the money it has on its old age population and to bankroll fellow Eurozone countries. All the while the continent could be completely dependent on Russian energy.
Meanwhile the US could be counting the relative costs of telling the American people that the money has run out, or staying true to its promises, even if that means bankrupting the country. By then China will probably have overtaken the US in economic terms, the Eurasian Union will dominate the landmass between China and Europe and UNASUR will rule South America.
These are not fantasies, they are happening right now. Things could change. The West could stop its short-term thinking, regain its dynamism, innovate like it used to and look forward rather than living off past glories. But so long as people deny that problems exist, they will just grow bigger and bigger.
It still does not have to be this way, but as Europe transforms into a giant retirement home and America begins to face up to bankruptcy if action is not taken to curb its profligate spending, the hubris of the West will almost guarantee these as the twilight years. Canada, Australia and New Zealand increasingly look like the healthiest parts of the developed world.
In a recent blog for Reuters, Fred Kempe warned that if America was no longer the dominant world power, there would surely be a €dangerous global power vacuum that no one over the next two decades is willing or capable of filling.€
Whatever one thinks of the United States, this is a misreading of history. It is also displays a disturbing hyper-nationalism. The world operated without the US and could do so again. Whether that world would be better or worse is a matter of conjecture. In a recent article, we warned of the dangers of a post-Western order. But it is insulting to the other 180 odd countries in the world that they need wet-nursing by the United States.
While Kempe is correct to think that if the West were to fade away, the order that the US holds together would also, he is wrong to think this is not already happening and could not benefit certain parts of the world.
If South America continues with the UNASUR project, it could potentially deliver greater prosperity and opportunity, not to mention a greater pan-Ibero American identity, than if the countries of the South remain distinct and isolated.
The end of British and French dominance in the mid-twentieth century has not led to greater prosperity for people in most of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Corruption has entrenched and wars continue apace.
The West has largely lost its moral authority. Not only because the cultural output of the West is deemed more and more to consist of vulgar music and pornography (this is the perception, whether it matches reality or not is another matter), but because the West is so selective about which tyrants it goes after.
While one can see the potential fallout of intervention in Syria, what special characteristics meant that Libya was ripe for regime change, but that problems in Mali, Somalia and the Sudans do not need dealing with? In much of Africa, the West has lost its toe-hold to China, who has carved a position of influence and authority in countries like Zambia.
What concerns both me and other analysts is the sheer denial of many Westerners to accept the problems they now face. Europe needs to dramatically reverse its population freefall. Even mighty Germany will lose millions (that's right, millions) of people in the coming decades unless a) the fertility right goes up or b) mass immigration begins.
For many European countries, such as Italy and Spain, the problem is now compounded by the numbers of people emigrating. Yes Russia and China have low levels of fertility. But Russia is building a Eurasian Union and drawing in the Kazakhs and other Eurasians. Meanwhile China is attracting back many in its diaspora. This may not be enough. But speaking to people in Europe, Eurasia and Asia, it appears that Russia and China understand their problems and have the means to make adjustments, far more than Europe does.
Crucially it is just the absolute loss of dynamism in the West which is frightening. Nowhere else in the world €" not China, South America, Russia or the Middle East €" has the native culture been as hollowed out as it has in the West. The Asians have a work ethic which the West is fast losing and the Chinese have no time for a democracy and form of capitalism which they think is inferior to their own.
Again, perhaps they are wrong. But perceptions count and the West has lost much of its authority to boss the Rest around. Give it 10 to 20 years time, if nothing changes, Europe could be demographically-speaking on its knees, Germany spending all the money it has on its old age population and to bankroll fellow Eurozone countries. All the while the continent could be completely dependent on Russian energy.
Meanwhile the US could be counting the relative costs of telling the American people that the money has run out, or staying true to its promises, even if that means bankrupting the country. By then China will probably have overtaken the US in economic terms, the Eurasian Union will dominate the landmass between China and Europe and UNASUR will rule South America.
These are not fantasies, they are happening right now. Things could change. The West could stop its short-term thinking, regain its dynamism, innovate like it used to and look forward rather than living off past glories. But so long as people deny that problems exist, they will just grow bigger and bigger.