Whatever could it be? Could it be thermonuclear war? Could it be unrestrained population growth? Could it be global warming? Could it be collision with a comet or an asteroid? Could it be terrorism? Of course, it could be any or all of these things.
On the other hand, I don't think so.
While all of these possibilities are lurking in the shadows, there's one that's not even on the list that's hitting us today: right here and right now.
And, nobody's talking about it.
In my estimation, the greatest threat to our survival is 'expediency' - taking advantage of current conditions without regard for future consequences.
I do my best to do a thorough job with the morning newspaper (in my case, it just happens to be The Washington Post) not just for curiosity's sake, nor even so that I can converse intelligently on world affairs, but particularly so that I can see the trends that are playing themselves out, particularly here in the US.
Wherever I turn, I see either expediency or the results of expediency.
This headline first grabbed my attention: "Iowa Flooding Could Be an Act of Man, Experts Say.
" The article goes on to explain how farming practices over the past century, but particularly recently in response to the rise in demand for crop-based ethanol, have created a situation where 500-year floods have occurred twice in 15 years.
Of course, the demand for ethanol itself is a result of the expedient use of fossil fuels and the consequent neglect of the research necessary to develop large-scale, economical renewable energy sources.
Of course, the unusual rainfall that triggered the flooding could also be a result of climate change but, as the article didn't fail to mention, that's not a 'provable' connection.
Assuming that climate change due to global warming is a fact, our expedient use of fossil fuels is behind that one, too.
So, accepting that our expedient use of fossil fuels contributes greatly to these natural disasters, and noting that the global run on fossil fuels continues to escalate, forcing the price of oil ever higher, what do our leaders propose? Drilling for more oil in protected environments! Behold the error cascade: a small number of relatively insignificant expediencies that, over time, increase exponentially until, ultimately, they blossom into a full-scale disaster.
A perfect example of an error cascade can be found in the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster of January 28, 1986.
Now, however, expediency is threatening a disaster of global proportions.
What else is in today's news? Oh, yes: there's always Iraq.
The rush to war after the disasters of September 11, 2001 (another error cascade, incidentally), based on lies and manipulated 'facts' and innuendo sent our troops into a country that was never a direct threat to the West and which, of course, has large resources of (need I say it?) oil.
The expediency continues.
And then, there's the 600% increase in foreclosures in the greater Washington DC area, joining San Francisco, Phoenix, and South Florida.
It has been fascinating to read about the growth and nurturing of the real estate bubble and the investment opportunities that depended on it.
Once again, we experience a prime example of economic expediency at the expense of homeowners and taxpayers, especially those who are least able to bear the cost.
"It's only a little indiscretion," you say.
"It doesn't really hurt anybody.
" "The companies can afford it.
" "We've always done it this way, and it's always worked.
We can't afford to change now.
" And, as they say, the beat goes on.
And, as I say, the error cascade grows ever closer to the 'catastrophe point' (that point beyond which there will be a sudden, irreversible change).
It's like floating on a rubber raft in the Niagara river, complaining that paddling would take too much effort.
While, meanwhile, you're drifting ever closer to the edge of the falls.
Still waters run deep - until, at least, they reach the edge of the falls.
But, by then, paddling becomes useless.
'Lulled into a false sense of security,' we continue to make the expedient choices rather than the difficult, but effective, ones.
We can maintain our sense of security only so long, then, someday, we'll wake up and realize where we're headed.
T.
S.
Elliot predicted the sound that people will make at that moment of realization in the famous last stanza of his poem, "Hollow Men.
" This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.
On the other hand, I don't think so.
While all of these possibilities are lurking in the shadows, there's one that's not even on the list that's hitting us today: right here and right now.
And, nobody's talking about it.
In my estimation, the greatest threat to our survival is 'expediency' - taking advantage of current conditions without regard for future consequences.
I do my best to do a thorough job with the morning newspaper (in my case, it just happens to be The Washington Post) not just for curiosity's sake, nor even so that I can converse intelligently on world affairs, but particularly so that I can see the trends that are playing themselves out, particularly here in the US.
Wherever I turn, I see either expediency or the results of expediency.
This headline first grabbed my attention: "Iowa Flooding Could Be an Act of Man, Experts Say.
" The article goes on to explain how farming practices over the past century, but particularly recently in response to the rise in demand for crop-based ethanol, have created a situation where 500-year floods have occurred twice in 15 years.
Of course, the demand for ethanol itself is a result of the expedient use of fossil fuels and the consequent neglect of the research necessary to develop large-scale, economical renewable energy sources.
Of course, the unusual rainfall that triggered the flooding could also be a result of climate change but, as the article didn't fail to mention, that's not a 'provable' connection.
Assuming that climate change due to global warming is a fact, our expedient use of fossil fuels is behind that one, too.
So, accepting that our expedient use of fossil fuels contributes greatly to these natural disasters, and noting that the global run on fossil fuels continues to escalate, forcing the price of oil ever higher, what do our leaders propose? Drilling for more oil in protected environments! Behold the error cascade: a small number of relatively insignificant expediencies that, over time, increase exponentially until, ultimately, they blossom into a full-scale disaster.
A perfect example of an error cascade can be found in the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster of January 28, 1986.
Now, however, expediency is threatening a disaster of global proportions.
What else is in today's news? Oh, yes: there's always Iraq.
The rush to war after the disasters of September 11, 2001 (another error cascade, incidentally), based on lies and manipulated 'facts' and innuendo sent our troops into a country that was never a direct threat to the West and which, of course, has large resources of (need I say it?) oil.
The expediency continues.
And then, there's the 600% increase in foreclosures in the greater Washington DC area, joining San Francisco, Phoenix, and South Florida.
It has been fascinating to read about the growth and nurturing of the real estate bubble and the investment opportunities that depended on it.
Once again, we experience a prime example of economic expediency at the expense of homeowners and taxpayers, especially those who are least able to bear the cost.
"It's only a little indiscretion," you say.
"It doesn't really hurt anybody.
" "The companies can afford it.
" "We've always done it this way, and it's always worked.
We can't afford to change now.
" And, as they say, the beat goes on.
And, as I say, the error cascade grows ever closer to the 'catastrophe point' (that point beyond which there will be a sudden, irreversible change).
It's like floating on a rubber raft in the Niagara river, complaining that paddling would take too much effort.
While, meanwhile, you're drifting ever closer to the edge of the falls.
Still waters run deep - until, at least, they reach the edge of the falls.
But, by then, paddling becomes useless.
'Lulled into a false sense of security,' we continue to make the expedient choices rather than the difficult, but effective, ones.
We can maintain our sense of security only so long, then, someday, we'll wake up and realize where we're headed.
T.
S.
Elliot predicted the sound that people will make at that moment of realization in the famous last stanza of his poem, "Hollow Men.
" This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper.