Well, it might mean something sometimes, other times it does not, just like with any other sport.
When researching these kinds of trends, I get it done commencing with all games that suit that trend.
Taking a peek at the last twenty years at teams that lost in their last matchup with their opponent and were favorites in that matchup, you will realize that there's no actual edge for those teams.
This is true in both situations whether last matchup was being held in current or prior years.
Now let's have a look at what goes on if this match should be be defined as "dog revenge" i.
e.
if team lost that last matchup as a dog.
It seems that underdogs get some edge (51.
7% ATS).
This comes as a little surprise, don't you think? If we take this further in our quest for solid NFL picks, and look at teams that are on a double "dog revenge" i.
e.
they lost last 2 matchups vs.
their opposition as a dog, we have a money making info: in 53.
7% cases, its gonna be profitable to bet on that team.
You must admit this is even more surprising! Now why doesn't it work out like in some of other sports, when losing favourites get revenge in following matchup? Simply cause teams have limited amount of games.
And they are not excited and all heated up for a rematch cause its been too long since their loss.
And why do former underdogs become passionate about a revenge chance? The fact is they aren't all that excited to get revenge.
Since my observations are made taking a closing line odds, one and only explanation is: line movement.
Line needs to move merely 1 point to get us this kind of benefit.
It is expected cause amateur bettors put too much value on prior team matchups.
This dead easy pro football system will give you 50-60 picks each season and you better have a good excuse to go against it.