Forget the opinion polls, pundits and focus groups. If you really want to know who's going to win the 2008 presidential election, you can look to these far more reliable, time-tested indicators:
Halloween masks: Sales figures for rubber masks of the candidates have foretold the winner of every election since 1980, according to costume sellers. In other words, the bigger freak usually wins. BuyCostumes.com shows sales of Obama masks outpacing McCain masks by 55 to 45 percent, while Amazon.com currently shows a 53 to 47 percent split in Obama's favor (almost exactly mirroring the current RealClearPolitics poll average).
Meanwhile, Sarah Palin has outsold Joe Biden by a margin of 3 to 1, so that could blunt Obama's advantage -- or simply scare more voters into voting Obama, take your pick.
Political markets: When in doubt, follow the money. A direct barometer of the candidates' prospects can be found at the Iowa Electronic Markets, where traders buy and sell political futures. The market has correctly predicted the winner in every election since 1988. Investors are currently extremely bullish on Obama, giving him about an 85 percent chance of winning. Obama is also trading at 85 over at InTrade.
The kids' vote: The kids' vote: Since 1956, the Weekly Reader has polled students in grades 1 through 12 on their presidential preference. As the results have proven, you can't fool children. They have correctly chosen the winner in 12 out of the last 13 elections. Obama won this year's poll by 54.7 to 42.9 percent.
The Washington Redskins: In 18 out of the last 19 elections, when the Redskins have won their final home game prior to the election, the incumbent has held the White House.
The one exception to the Redskins Rule was 2004, when the Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins, but John Kerry still went on to lose President Bush. This year the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Washington Redskins in a blowout, portending a possible Obama landslide.
T-shirt sales: Obamaphiles have been making a much stronger visible show of support for their candidate than the McCainiacs, according to CafePress's handy election meter. Over the last year, the online retailer shows that sales of T-shirts, bumper stickers, and other swag promoting Obama has been outpacing McCain merchandise by about 46% to 20%
Book sales: Both sides are itching for a fight, but based on at least one barometer in the publishing world, the left has a slight edge. Over the last year, sales of my book How to Win a Fight with a Conservative have narrowly beat out sales of my other book How to Win a Fight with a Liberal by a margin of 50.8% to 49.2%. That suggests an Obama victory of 1.6%.
All of this adds up to very bad news McCain. Not only does all available scientific evidence suggest he will lose, but he gets no help from quack science either.
~Daniel Kurtzman