To appreciate the Job of the Bookmaker we must first dissect the methods and criteria to which he lends himself.
He must create or compile the Odds of each and every horse race on every race card.
Every single day.
This is a very difficult Job and mistakes are often made.
So in order to gain an edge when betting we need to find any faults or mistakes that may occur during the compiling process.
The complete process of compiling will be known as creating "The Book".
This will be addressed in the following 9 stages.
Understanding the numbers is vital to anyone serious about betting to win! This will be outlined in the following nine stages- The Odds The Fractions The Percentages The Decimals The probability The value The Margins The predicted chance of success Compiling the Book Stage 1 Let us start with the Odds There are two types of odds Absolute odds and indefinite odds To distinguish between the two- Absolute odds are the toss of a coin is 50/50 or Evens Therefore you have a 50% chance of it being Heads and a 50% chance of it being Tails Now if I was to offer you 5/1 for it being Heads this would be known as indefinite odds, an enticer or a teaser if you like! Basically all bookmakers offer indefinite odds that are unbalanced and designed to entice This is where they incorporate the Margin/the over round / the over broke or spread Two Sides two every coin For every bet there is a need for two parties to have different opinions of a betting outcome For the purpose of this exercise these will be known as Party A.
(the Bookmaker/layer.
Or he who offers the odds) And Party B.
(the Backer/the bettor or he who takes the odds) There are also two sides to the actual odds These are known as odds on and odds against What this basically means is that if party A Offers 2/1 and Party B.
Accepts those odds Then Party A will have odds of 1/ 2 and Party B will have odds of 2/ 1 This works with "odds on" equations to.
For example- The- "odds on" Wager offered by party A.
Maybe 1/6 In this case party B will take the odds of 1/6 and party A would secure himself odds of 6/1 + His/hers profit Margin.
(This profit Margin is known as the over round.
The over broke.
The spread or just profit margin) Now for a bookmaker to guarantee himself overall profit he must apply a simple rule known as "odds coupling.
Odds coupling This is always applied when compiling a book for any individual event So realistically the odds on offer are indefinite, you would not get 1/3 for party B opposing 3/1 for party A Basically "Odds coupling" is when the odds are slightly disproportionate to each other when compiling both sides of probability to a bet This can easily be recognised when betting on betting exchanges where the layside may offer 5.
4 and the back side may offer 4.
9 (Not the same/disproportioned odds) What this means is that if party B is getting 4/ 1 then party B must adjust his odds when compiling to incorporate a small percentage of profit for his/her book ( The over round ) This is where we need to convert the odds from fractions into percentages and then back to fractions again.
So let us say we have odds of 3/1 This tells us that there are 4 parts to this bet (3/1 is the same as 3+1 when betting) Now what this tells us is that Party A has 3 chances in 4 of winning And party B only has 1 chance in 4 of winning Therefore if we convert these odds to percentages Party A has a 75% chance of winning opposed to Party B who only has a 25% chance of winning) Now to ensure the bookmaker or party A incorporates is over round or profit margin he must at least adjust his percentage to 76% this would give him a 1% Margin on the Spread or 76%/25% So effectively odds of 3/1 will not be coupled with 1/ 3 when making the book.
Instead the odds may appear more like this Party B would use the odds of 2/7 instead of 1/3 because this will allow him a 77.
52% profit ratio if he wins And party B on the other side of the odds would be 3/1 allowing him a probability of 25% as a winning chance according to the odds on offer to him As you can see Party A has incorporated this margin on just one horse if he did this in a ten horse race he would have created an over round of 25.
2% this is made up of the odd 2.
52% he has added to each selection by disproportioning the opposing odds Therefore the definition of odds coupling is to disproportionate opposing odds from the layers side Party A.
Opposed to proportioned odds on the backers side /Party B Stage 2 The Fractions The Fractions are quite simply percentages and Decimals written in a different form Again there are two sides to a bet Party A.
The Bookmaker/layer Party B.
The backer If the odds were absolute or real, a table of odds would look something like this Bookmaker Backer 1/3 3/1 75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning In an odd's on wager the tables would be the other way round Bookmaker Backer 3/1 1/3 25% chance of winning 75% chance of winning Stage 3 The percentages The percentages are the same as Fractions and Decimals also written in a different form Bookmaker Backer 75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning 1/3 3/1 Etc...
Stage 4 The Decimals Decimal odds are a simpler way of working out the odds and don't give you a headache every time you want to place a bet.
Do you know the difference between 2/9 and 4/7? No? Well, not many people do.
But with decimals you'd know instantly.
So, how do decimal odds work? Well, if the decimal odds are 4.
4 and you place a back bet of £10 and win, your total return is £10 x 4.
4 = £44.
(less any commissions that may be added by the betting exchange or bookmaker) This is equivalent to a traditional price of 7/2 The key part to remember is that decimal odds always include the unit stake - thus every price you see on Betfair will be >1.
Example- Fractional odds represent the profit - 5/1 means you will win five pounds for every one pound staked.
And odds of 5/1 will shown as 5+1 the (unit stake) thus showing 6.
0 as the equivalent odds Likewise odds of 7/2 are calculated as follows 7 divided by 2=3.
5 plus the unit stake >1 now equates to 4.
5 So 7/2 is 3.
5 + 1 which equals 4.
5 This may take some time to come to terms with but in the meantime you can go to the "Betfair" website and use there odds converter tool absolutely free You'll be up to par in no time! Also once you can calculate fractions to decimals it makes working out predicted percentage much easier Example- Odds of 5/2 are converted to percentages as follows 5 divided by 2 =2.
5 Now divide into 100 (100%) This equals 100/2.
5 = 40 Therefore 5/2 represents a predicted 40% of that bet winning if the odds are absolute or real Stage 5 The Probabilities This is the biggest illusion when betting on horse racing Why? Firstly every horse in a race as some chance of winning Therefore we must assume that all horses start off on a level playing field and thereafter a book is compiled by the odds compiler or bookmaker to create an in-balance Some selections will be judged to have a greater chance and some to have a lesser chance of winning and therefore odds will fluctuate across the book Shorter odds will be offered to selections that are deemed to be a better choice when predicting a winner And longer odds for those expected to have less chance of winning This is where the backer can obtain value in there betting! Stage 6 Value Definition: Obtaining a better price from the odds on offer than are predicted to be correct In simple terms if the odd on offer are 3/1 then it is predicted that the selection has a 25% chance of winning But what if the absolute or real chance of winning was 40% Then the odds should actually be 5/2 (5 divided by 2 =2.
5) (100% divided by 2.
5 =40%) If this was the case you would achieve odds of 3/1 which would return 3 times the stake placed from a bet that should only be returning 2.
5 times your stake at 5/2 Also you have got higher odds for a 40% probability of winning opposed to the odds compilers prediction being that the selection of 3/1 should only give a winning chance of 25% So therefore in this case providing the selection goes on to win You would have gained some value! Stage 7 The Margins When a backer chooses his or hers selections he/she usually does this by reading or studying various items of form Or a system based on some criteria Or a tipster What he/she often fails to account for when placing bets are- The over round/over broke/ profit margins that are incorporated in the odds on offer or the spread as it is known The following articles and example will simplify the structure of the book to enable the understanding of absolute or real percentages of the "Book" Stage 8 The predicted chance of success A great way evaluate your predicted chance of achieving a winning outcome is to use the following rule.
The rule is- "Whatever you think, think the opposite" Example of this rule is as follows- If you are offered odds of 3/1 or 4.
0 this means that you have a 1 in 4 chance of success provided that the odds are absolute This equates to you having a 25% chance of success.
Apply the rule and.
Think the opposite! This means you have a 75% chance of losing (which does not include the over round margin or spread) All of a sudden the bet does not look so appealing, this is where we have to use our own judgement based on fact, form and analysis to allow you to decide whether or not you think the chance of winning is greater than predicted, for that selection Stage 9 Compiling and creating "the book" As a bookmaker.
A knowledge of percentages is vital and for many learning these numbers will become second nature In order for a bookmaker to secure a profit from the book the percentages for all runners combined must together equate to a number greater than 100% Occasionally a bookmaker will compile or adjust odds to make the book under round or over broke in order to attract business (All runners combined equal less than 100%) In doing so he puts is book at risk of potentially making a loss However in most circumstance the book is over round Example of this is shown in the following race compilation- This is taken from a real race from Friday October 7th 2011 Wolverhampton 18.
10 The 32 RedPoker Median Auction Stake Odds for each selection Selection Odds converted to percentage True Odds all 9/1 True chance of winning 100% divide by 9+1=10% Evens Chelsea Mick 50% 9/1 true odds 10% average chance of winning 3/1 Oblitereight 25% 13/2 Mr Fong 13.
30% 7/1 Elmora 12.
50% 10/1 Hi There 9.
10% 12/1 Statement of Intent 7.
70% 25/1 Kings Future 3.
80% 25/1 Path Finder 3.
80% 25/1 The Cornish Cowboy 3.
80% 50/1 Tresabella 2.
00% Totals=131% True totals are ten horses with and average 10% per horse equal to- 100% 131% - 100% = 31% as the Over round or Spread or Profit Margin Betting forecast- Evs Chelsea Mick, 3/1 Oblitereight, 13/2 Mr Fong, 7/1 Elmora, 10/1 Hi There, 12/1 Statementofintent, 25/1 King's Future, 25/1 Path Finder, 25/1 Thecornishcowboy, 50/1 Tresabella Thus- the over round here is 31% is achieved by the bookmaker for this race In theory a backer who staked according to the percentage on every selection would stake 131 units.
However whatever horse wins will only result in 100 units being returned.
Therefore the bookmaker would make 31 units profit or 31% This is generally how a book would look with an over round included in the Odds or prices!
He must create or compile the Odds of each and every horse race on every race card.
Every single day.
This is a very difficult Job and mistakes are often made.
So in order to gain an edge when betting we need to find any faults or mistakes that may occur during the compiling process.
The complete process of compiling will be known as creating "The Book".
This will be addressed in the following 9 stages.
Understanding the numbers is vital to anyone serious about betting to win! This will be outlined in the following nine stages- The Odds The Fractions The Percentages The Decimals The probability The value The Margins The predicted chance of success Compiling the Book Stage 1 Let us start with the Odds There are two types of odds Absolute odds and indefinite odds To distinguish between the two- Absolute odds are the toss of a coin is 50/50 or Evens Therefore you have a 50% chance of it being Heads and a 50% chance of it being Tails Now if I was to offer you 5/1 for it being Heads this would be known as indefinite odds, an enticer or a teaser if you like! Basically all bookmakers offer indefinite odds that are unbalanced and designed to entice This is where they incorporate the Margin/the over round / the over broke or spread Two Sides two every coin For every bet there is a need for two parties to have different opinions of a betting outcome For the purpose of this exercise these will be known as Party A.
(the Bookmaker/layer.
Or he who offers the odds) And Party B.
(the Backer/the bettor or he who takes the odds) There are also two sides to the actual odds These are known as odds on and odds against What this basically means is that if party A Offers 2/1 and Party B.
Accepts those odds Then Party A will have odds of 1/ 2 and Party B will have odds of 2/ 1 This works with "odds on" equations to.
For example- The- "odds on" Wager offered by party A.
Maybe 1/6 In this case party B will take the odds of 1/6 and party A would secure himself odds of 6/1 + His/hers profit Margin.
(This profit Margin is known as the over round.
The over broke.
The spread or just profit margin) Now for a bookmaker to guarantee himself overall profit he must apply a simple rule known as "odds coupling.
Odds coupling This is always applied when compiling a book for any individual event So realistically the odds on offer are indefinite, you would not get 1/3 for party B opposing 3/1 for party A Basically "Odds coupling" is when the odds are slightly disproportionate to each other when compiling both sides of probability to a bet This can easily be recognised when betting on betting exchanges where the layside may offer 5.
4 and the back side may offer 4.
9 (Not the same/disproportioned odds) What this means is that if party B is getting 4/ 1 then party B must adjust his odds when compiling to incorporate a small percentage of profit for his/her book ( The over round ) This is where we need to convert the odds from fractions into percentages and then back to fractions again.
So let us say we have odds of 3/1 This tells us that there are 4 parts to this bet (3/1 is the same as 3+1 when betting) Now what this tells us is that Party A has 3 chances in 4 of winning And party B only has 1 chance in 4 of winning Therefore if we convert these odds to percentages Party A has a 75% chance of winning opposed to Party B who only has a 25% chance of winning) Now to ensure the bookmaker or party A incorporates is over round or profit margin he must at least adjust his percentage to 76% this would give him a 1% Margin on the Spread or 76%/25% So effectively odds of 3/1 will not be coupled with 1/ 3 when making the book.
Instead the odds may appear more like this Party B would use the odds of 2/7 instead of 1/3 because this will allow him a 77.
52% profit ratio if he wins And party B on the other side of the odds would be 3/1 allowing him a probability of 25% as a winning chance according to the odds on offer to him As you can see Party A has incorporated this margin on just one horse if he did this in a ten horse race he would have created an over round of 25.
2% this is made up of the odd 2.
52% he has added to each selection by disproportioning the opposing odds Therefore the definition of odds coupling is to disproportionate opposing odds from the layers side Party A.
Opposed to proportioned odds on the backers side /Party B Stage 2 The Fractions The Fractions are quite simply percentages and Decimals written in a different form Again there are two sides to a bet Party A.
The Bookmaker/layer Party B.
The backer If the odds were absolute or real, a table of odds would look something like this Bookmaker Backer 1/3 3/1 75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning In an odd's on wager the tables would be the other way round Bookmaker Backer 3/1 1/3 25% chance of winning 75% chance of winning Stage 3 The percentages The percentages are the same as Fractions and Decimals also written in a different form Bookmaker Backer 75% chance of winning 25% chance of winning 1/3 3/1 Etc...
Stage 4 The Decimals Decimal odds are a simpler way of working out the odds and don't give you a headache every time you want to place a bet.
Do you know the difference between 2/9 and 4/7? No? Well, not many people do.
But with decimals you'd know instantly.
So, how do decimal odds work? Well, if the decimal odds are 4.
4 and you place a back bet of £10 and win, your total return is £10 x 4.
4 = £44.
(less any commissions that may be added by the betting exchange or bookmaker) This is equivalent to a traditional price of 7/2 The key part to remember is that decimal odds always include the unit stake - thus every price you see on Betfair will be >1.
Example- Fractional odds represent the profit - 5/1 means you will win five pounds for every one pound staked.
And odds of 5/1 will shown as 5+1 the (unit stake) thus showing 6.
0 as the equivalent odds Likewise odds of 7/2 are calculated as follows 7 divided by 2=3.
5 plus the unit stake >1 now equates to 4.
5 So 7/2 is 3.
5 + 1 which equals 4.
5 This may take some time to come to terms with but in the meantime you can go to the "Betfair" website and use there odds converter tool absolutely free You'll be up to par in no time! Also once you can calculate fractions to decimals it makes working out predicted percentage much easier Example- Odds of 5/2 are converted to percentages as follows 5 divided by 2 =2.
5 Now divide into 100 (100%) This equals 100/2.
5 = 40 Therefore 5/2 represents a predicted 40% of that bet winning if the odds are absolute or real Stage 5 The Probabilities This is the biggest illusion when betting on horse racing Why? Firstly every horse in a race as some chance of winning Therefore we must assume that all horses start off on a level playing field and thereafter a book is compiled by the odds compiler or bookmaker to create an in-balance Some selections will be judged to have a greater chance and some to have a lesser chance of winning and therefore odds will fluctuate across the book Shorter odds will be offered to selections that are deemed to be a better choice when predicting a winner And longer odds for those expected to have less chance of winning This is where the backer can obtain value in there betting! Stage 6 Value Definition: Obtaining a better price from the odds on offer than are predicted to be correct In simple terms if the odd on offer are 3/1 then it is predicted that the selection has a 25% chance of winning But what if the absolute or real chance of winning was 40% Then the odds should actually be 5/2 (5 divided by 2 =2.
5) (100% divided by 2.
5 =40%) If this was the case you would achieve odds of 3/1 which would return 3 times the stake placed from a bet that should only be returning 2.
5 times your stake at 5/2 Also you have got higher odds for a 40% probability of winning opposed to the odds compilers prediction being that the selection of 3/1 should only give a winning chance of 25% So therefore in this case providing the selection goes on to win You would have gained some value! Stage 7 The Margins When a backer chooses his or hers selections he/she usually does this by reading or studying various items of form Or a system based on some criteria Or a tipster What he/she often fails to account for when placing bets are- The over round/over broke/ profit margins that are incorporated in the odds on offer or the spread as it is known The following articles and example will simplify the structure of the book to enable the understanding of absolute or real percentages of the "Book" Stage 8 The predicted chance of success A great way evaluate your predicted chance of achieving a winning outcome is to use the following rule.
The rule is- "Whatever you think, think the opposite" Example of this rule is as follows- If you are offered odds of 3/1 or 4.
0 this means that you have a 1 in 4 chance of success provided that the odds are absolute This equates to you having a 25% chance of success.
Apply the rule and.
Think the opposite! This means you have a 75% chance of losing (which does not include the over round margin or spread) All of a sudden the bet does not look so appealing, this is where we have to use our own judgement based on fact, form and analysis to allow you to decide whether or not you think the chance of winning is greater than predicted, for that selection Stage 9 Compiling and creating "the book" As a bookmaker.
A knowledge of percentages is vital and for many learning these numbers will become second nature In order for a bookmaker to secure a profit from the book the percentages for all runners combined must together equate to a number greater than 100% Occasionally a bookmaker will compile or adjust odds to make the book under round or over broke in order to attract business (All runners combined equal less than 100%) In doing so he puts is book at risk of potentially making a loss However in most circumstance the book is over round Example of this is shown in the following race compilation- This is taken from a real race from Friday October 7th 2011 Wolverhampton 18.
10 The 32 RedPoker Median Auction Stake Odds for each selection Selection Odds converted to percentage True Odds all 9/1 True chance of winning 100% divide by 9+1=10% Evens Chelsea Mick 50% 9/1 true odds 10% average chance of winning 3/1 Oblitereight 25% 13/2 Mr Fong 13.
30% 7/1 Elmora 12.
50% 10/1 Hi There 9.
10% 12/1 Statement of Intent 7.
70% 25/1 Kings Future 3.
80% 25/1 Path Finder 3.
80% 25/1 The Cornish Cowboy 3.
80% 50/1 Tresabella 2.
00% Totals=131% True totals are ten horses with and average 10% per horse equal to- 100% 131% - 100% = 31% as the Over round or Spread or Profit Margin Betting forecast- Evs Chelsea Mick, 3/1 Oblitereight, 13/2 Mr Fong, 7/1 Elmora, 10/1 Hi There, 12/1 Statementofintent, 25/1 King's Future, 25/1 Path Finder, 25/1 Thecornishcowboy, 50/1 Tresabella Thus- the over round here is 31% is achieved by the bookmaker for this race In theory a backer who staked according to the percentage on every selection would stake 131 units.
However whatever horse wins will only result in 100 units being returned.
Therefore the bookmaker would make 31 units profit or 31% This is generally how a book would look with an over round included in the Odds or prices!